Sonoma County buyers signed 501 contracts in October 2026. That's up 23% from 408 a year earlier and the most in any month of the past 15. Over the same period, the number of U.S. homes under contract fell about 10.5%. This isn't a frenzy, though. Closed sales fell, prices barely moved and buyers are negotiating hard.
Every extra contract came from homes under $3M
All 93 extra contracts in October came from homes priced under $3M:
- Under $1M: up 20% (289 to 348)
- $1M to $3M: up 34% (106 to 142)
- $3M and up: down 15% (13 to 11)
The $1M to $3M band grew the most, which tells us trade-up season is open. Healdsburg led the band, with mid-range contracts rising from 5 last October to 16. Santa Rosa was next, up 55% (20 to 31). Santa Rosa also drove the overall volume: its contracts rose 38% (130 to 179), more than any other town added.
Why it still feels slow
Closed sales fell 10% (413 to 373). That number lags, because contracts close 30 to 45 days after signing. With 501 homes in the pipeline, November and December sales should come in stronger.
Prices tell you more. The county median sale rose just 1% to $790,000, and price per square foot slipped 2% ($557 to $546). Under $1M, the median sale fell 5% ($699,000 to $665,000). Buyers are acting because prices have levelled out, not because they're climbing.
Buyers also have choice. In October, the county had 2.5 months of supply under $1M, 3.6 months between $1M and $3M, and 12.9 months above $3M. Under 3 months leans toward a seller's market; over 6 leans toward a buyer's market.
Sellers are giving ground through price cuts
Homes still close near their list price. What has changed is how many sellers cut their price first. Between $1M and $3M, homes closed at 94% of their original asking price, down from 96% a year ago.
Under $1M, homes sold 15% faster (65 days down to 55). They closed at 100% of list but 97% of original list. Homes priced right on day one sell fast, and the rest trim about 3% before they find a buyer.
Above $3M, buyers hold the cards. Homes averaged 141 days on market, up from 116, and closed at 90% of original list. Luxury sales fell 29% over August to October (34 to 24). For a closer look at each band, see our guide to the Sonoma County housing market by price point.
Each town is its own market
The county numbers hide how far apart the towns are. Petaluma is still the tightest, with 1.6 months of supply, though its contracts fell 15% in October. Sebastopol sells above asking in both bands under $3M. Windsor is the county's hottest starter-home market, with contracts under $1M up 33% over three months.
Healdsburg is at the other end. It has 7.1 months of supply, and homes take 102 days to sell, yet October contracts jumped 86% (14 to 26). Buyers there have room to negotiate, and the median sale fell 13% to $1.38M. If you're thinking about buying a home in Healdsburg, this is the most leverage buyers have had in a while.
Sonoma, the city, went the opposite way. Inventory fell 14%, homes sold 12 days faster and the median sale rose 10% to $1.25M.
What it means for you
If you're selling under $3M, don't wait for spring. Buyers are active now, but they compare prices closely. Price right on day one and expect a negotiation, not a bidding war.
If you're buying, you finally have time to think before you sign. That's especially true between $1M and $3M, and in Healdsburg, where sellers are cutting prices to meet the market. You can browse our current listings to see what's available now.
Data: TrendGraphix (BAREIS), all residential, October 2026 (preliminary) vs October 2025 unless noted.
Have questions about what October's numbers mean for your home? Email me directly at david@bruingtonhargreaves.com.
About the Author
David Hargreaves is the co-founder of BruingtonHargreaves, one of Sonoma County's top-ranked real estate teams and part of W Real Estate. Originally from the UK and an Oxford University graduate, David built and ran a digital marketing agency serving Google, Facebook, and other major brands before becoming one of Sonoma County's top agents within three years of entering real estate.
Today he and business partner Jonathan Bruington have sold more than $250 million in Sonoma County homes over the past three years, earning recognition as a RealTrends No. 2 team in the county and the No. 1 team in Healdsburg. David specialises in helping Bay Area buyers and sellers with luxury properties and vacation rentals across Healdsburg, Windsor, Santa Rosa, and the Russian River communities.
He lives in Sonoma County with his wife Nancy and is happiest cycling the back roads, exploring local wineries, or behind a camera. Have a question about buying, selling, or building in Wine Country? Book a free call.