The national housing market just posted its first year-over-year drop in pending home sales in nine months. Sonoma County did the opposite. Contracts signed across the county this summer ran 11.2 percent ahead of last summer, inventory is tighter than it was a year ago, and homes are being absorbed faster than at any point in this data set.
Realtor.com's August 2026 housing report found pending sales fell 0.2 percent nationally, ending an eight-month streak of annual gains that had peaked at 4.1 percent back in May. The report's chief economist pointed to mortgage rates that climbed from 6.05 percent in February to 6.67 percent by August, arriving right on schedule for the seasonal slowdown that typically hits in late summer.
Sonoma County did not get that memo. Homes pended countywide rose 4.2 percent year-over-year in August alone, and the broader summer picture is stronger still.
The demand side: more contracts, less to show for it yet
An average of 456 homes went under contract per month this June through August, up 11.2 percent from the 410 monthly average a year earlier. The pended absorption rate, the share of active listings going under contract each month, climbed from 31.0 percent to 39.3 percent, a 26.9 percent jump. It is not a perfectly apples-to-apples comparison against the national figure, which tracks a different index, but the direction is not in question: local demand is building while national demand eases.
What is holding this back from showing up everywhere yet is supply. New listings are up only 5.3 percent to 521 a month, while active inventory is down 12.3 percent to 1,161 homes for sale. Homes are being absorbed faster than they are being replaced, which is exactly what a rising absorption rate would predict. Closed sales are still down 5.5 percent year over year, but pended sales, the forward-looking number, are up 11.2 percent, so the closing figures should look meaningfully better once this summer's contracts finish working their way through escrow this fall.
Pricing has stayed calm through all of it. Median sold price is essentially flat at $812,300, up just 0.9 percent, and homes are selling at 96.7 percent of original list price, ordinary market territory rather than the bidding-war numbers a tighter supply picture might suggest. Below $1 million, roughly half the county's active listings, the story is the same with a bit more intensity: pended sales up 14.3 percent, absorption up from 41.0 percent to 53.9 percent, and median price essentially unchanged at $712,700. Buyers who sat out earlier in the year are moving again. They are just not yet paying up to compete for it.
Which towns are leading, and which are not
Five of the county's seven towns are pending more homes than a year ago, several by a wide margin: Russian River is up 28.2 percent, Santa Rosa 26.8 percent, Sebastopol 25.7 percent, and the city of Sonoma 19.7 percent. Russian River's number comes with a caveat, since it is a small, seasonal market where an average of 36 pended homes a month versus 28 a year ago produces an outsized percentage. Santa Rosa and Sebastopol's gains rest on a larger base and look more structurally real, and both are worth a look for anyone still narrowing down among the best cities in Sonoma County for their budget.
Windsor's headline number looks modest at plus 2.7 percent, but its closed-sale absorption rate nearly doubled year over year, from 35.3 percent to 66.7 percent, the single biggest swing anywhere in this data set. Active inventory there is down 23.5 percent, so buyers looking at homes for sale in Windsor should be ready to move quickly once something they like comes on the market.
Petaluma and Healdsburg are the two towns moving against the county trend, and for different reasons. Petaluma's story is scarcity, not weak demand. Active inventory is down 33.8 percent to an average of just 61 homes on the market, days on market fell 14.5 percent to 37 days, and the closed-sale absorption rate, 74.6 percent, is the highest in the county. There is simply less to sell.
Healdsburg is the one market cooling
Healdsburg is genuinely different, and the softening is concentrated at the top of the market. The closed-sale absorption rate fell from 16.4 percent to 12.3 percent, average days on market jumped from 60 to 95, and active inventory is up 12.7 percent even as sales activity falls, the textbook signature of a market shifting toward buyers. August's median sold price jumped 25.3 percent year over year, but with only 12 homes sold that month, this is a small-sample artifact reflecting which specific homes closed rather than a real price surge. The quarter-average change, a more reliable 4.8 percent, tells the truer story.
For anyone considering buying a home in Healdsburg, especially at the luxury and vacation-home end where the town's market is weighted, this is the most patient season to shop it in over a year. Sellers there should recalibrate: overpricing carries more risk than it did twelve months ago.
What it means if you are buying or selling this fall
For buyers: inventory is tightening almost everywhere except Healdsburg and Petaluma's upper end, so anyone waiting for more choices this fall may be disappointed. Prices are still flat countywide, which means there is no urgency premium yet, a good window to negotiate before rising absorption rates start pushing prices up. Windsor and Petaluma buyers specifically should be prepared to act decisively once a home hits the market.
For sellers: countywide demand is building faster than supply, the setup sellers want heading into fall, though it has not yet translated into higher prices, so realistic pricing still matters. Petaluma sellers are in the strongest position in the county right now. Healdsburg sellers are the exception and should price with this year's slower absorption and longer days on market in mind, not last year's numbers.
Have questions about what any of this means for a specific property or neighborhood? Email me directly at david@bruingtonhargreaves.com.
About the author
David Hargreaves is the co-founder of BruingtonHargreaves, one of Sonoma County's top-ranked real estate teams and part of W Real Estate. Originally from the UK and an Oxford University graduate, David built and ran a digital marketing agency serving Google, Facebook, and other major brands before becoming one of Sonoma County's top agents within three years of entering real estate.
Today he and business partner Jonathan Bruington have sold more than $250 million in Sonoma County homes over the past three years, earning recognition as a RealTrends No. 2 team in the county and the No. 1 team in Healdsburg. David specialises in helping Bay Area buyers and sellers with luxury properties and vacation rentals across Healdsburg, Windsor, Santa Rosa, and the Russian River communities.
He lives in Sonoma County with his wife Nancy and is happiest cycling the back roads, exploring local wineries, or behind a camera. Have a question about buying, selling, or building in Wine Country? Book a free call.