National home shoppers who can spend the most are moving faster than everyone else. Redfin's latest data shows luxury home prices, the top 5 percent of a market's price range, rose 4.7 percent year over year nationally in the three months ending in May, more than triple the 1.5 percent gain for the rest of the market. We ran the identical calculation on Sonoma County using closed sales from BAREIS MLS, and the picture here is far more local than the national headline suggests.
How We Defined Luxury for Sonoma County
We used Redfin's own methodology: luxury is any home that sold in the top 5 percent of its market's price range, and the everyday comparison group is the 35th to 65th percentile, the true middle of the market. We ran this on closed sales for the six months ending in May 2026 versus the same six months a year earlier, across Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Sonoma, Sebastopol, and Windsor, the five markets with enough luxury-tier transactions to trust the numbers. Healdsburg, Kenwood, and Glen Ellen sell so few homes above $5 million in any given window that a single estate closing can swing the whole city's median, so we cover those two markets separately below with the actual transactions rather than a percentage.
Across the five core markets combined, Sonoma County's luxury segment barely moved, down 1.1 percent, while the everyday market ticked up 0.3 percent. That is nearly the opposite of the national divergence Redfin is reporting. The county is not one market. It is several small ones, and they are not moving together.
Santa Rosa: Steady Growth at the Top
Santa Rosa is the county's biggest and most reliable market, with enough transactions, 30 to 33 luxury sales in each window, that its numbers hold up. The luxury median rose 5.7 percent to $2.325 million, while the everyday market slipped slightly, down 1.2 percent. That is the most stable read in the county: luxury demand outpacing the middle market, but by a modest amount, not a surge.
Windsor and Sonoma Are Pulling Away
Windsor's luxury median jumped 40.1 percent to $1.85 million, the sharpest luxury move anywhere in the county, while its everyday market rose a more modest 4.5 percent. Sonoma, the city, not the county, told a similar story: its luxury median climbed 9.3 percent to $6.3 million even as its everyday market fell 5.5 percent. In both towns, buyers at the top of the market are moving with real conviction while the middle of the market cools. For a broader look at where Sonoma County's wealthiest buyers are concentrating, see our guide to the county's luxury neighborhoods.
Petaluma and Sebastopol Cool at the High End
Petaluma ran the other direction. Its luxury median fell 7.9 percent to $2.58 million, while its everyday market also softened, down 3.5 percent. Sebastopol was the most balanced of the five: luxury up 4.3 percent, everyday up 1.1 percent, both segments moving in the same direction at a similar pace. That kind of alignment is rare in this data set and probably the closest any Sonoma County market comes to mirroring the national trend at a modest scale.
Healdsburg: Lumpy, Not Declining
Healdsburg's luxury market cannot be reduced to a single percentage, and if you see one, be skeptical of it. Over the eighteen months ending in May, Healdsburg logged 253 closed sales, 14 of them above $5 million. Last spring, the market was defined by a run of trophy sales: a Westside Road estate sold for $15 million at full asking price, and a West Dry Creek Road property, originally listed near $19 million, eventually sold for $9.7 million after more than a year on market. This spring's top sale was $6.5 million for a Chalk Hill Road property, still a strong number, just not a headline-grabbing one. In between, Healdsburg quietly added several more sales above $6 million, including $8.26 million on Matheson Street and a Fitch Mountain Road estate that sold over its asking price. The high end of Healdsburg is not cooling. It is simply thin enough that any six-month snapshot reflects who happened to list, not where the market is headed. Anyone weighing a move to town should read our guide on what to know before moving to Healdsburg.
Kenwood and Glen Ellen show the same pattern at an even smaller scale. Combined, the two towns saw roughly 38 sales in the past six months, with only two landing in the luxury tier, including a $10.5 million sale on Via Cantera in Kenwood. One sale like that can make a small market's luxury figure swing by triple digits in either direction. Treat any luxury statistic from these towns as a snapshot of individual transactions, not a trend.
What This Means if You're Buying or Selling Above $2 Million
The national story that luxury is outpacing everything else does not hold uniformly in Sonoma County. It holds in Windsor and Sonoma right now. It barely holds in Santa Rosa. It does not hold in Petaluma. And in Healdsburg, Kenwood, and Glen Ellen, there is not enough volume at the top to call a trend at all, only individual sales worth knowing about. Sellers with a $2 million-plus home should look at their specific town's data, not a countywide or national number, before setting expectations on price or timeline. For the fuller county-wide market picture behind these numbers, see our 2025 housing market report.
Have questions about how the luxury market is moving in your neighborhood? Email me directly at david@bruingtonhargreaves.com.
About the Author
David Hargreaves is the co-founder of BruingtonHargreaves, one of Sonoma County's top-ranked real estate teams and part of W Real Estate. Originally from the UK and an Oxford University graduate, David built and ran a digital marketing agency serving Google, Facebook, and other major brands before becoming one of Sonoma County's top agents within three years of entering real estate.
Today he and business partner Jonathan Bruington have sold more than $250 million in Sonoma County homes over the past three years, earning recognition as a RealTrends No. 2 team in the county and the No. 1 team in Healdsburg. David specialises in helping Bay Area buyers and sellers with luxury properties and vacation rentals across Healdsburg, Windsor, Santa Rosa, and the Russian River communities.
He lives in Sonoma County with his wife Nancy and is happiest cycling the back roads, exploring local wineries, or behind a camera. Have a question about buying, selling, or building in Wine Country? Book a free call.